Gasoline did most of the work in last month's inflation report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday that its Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, and that the gasoline index alone, up 9.1%, accounted for "over half of the monthly all items increase." Over the past 12 months, overall prices are up 3.7%, compared with 3.4% in the year through August.
Economists had expected 3.6%, according to CBS News, which cited the FactSet consensus. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3% for the month and 2.6% for the year, up from 2.4% in August.
Fuel costs are up by a third in a year
The gasoline index is up 34.2% from September 2025. Before seasonal adjustment, it rose 6.5% in September. The broader energy index climbed 5.2% for the month and 20.4% for the year, and fuel oil, the home heating fuel, rose 15.3% in a single month.
September 2026 CPI: fuel and energy
| Index | Change in Sept. (seasonally adjusted) | Change over 12 months |
|---|---|---|
| All items | +0.6% | +3.7% |
| Core (less food and energy) | +0.3% | +2.6% |
| Gasoline (all types) | +9.1% | +34.2% |
| Energy | +5.2% | +20.4% |
| Fuel oil | +15.3% | +74.2% |
| Airline fares | +1.2% | +22.4% |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI news release and Table 2, Oct. 14, 2026.
At the pump, the numbers have barely budged since the survey month ended. AAA's national average for regular was $4.33 a gallon on Oct. 15, almost exactly where it was a month earlier and $1.27 above the $3.07 average a year ago. Diesel averaged $6.32, up from $3.66 a year earlier. CBS News reported that regular was $2.98 before the war with Iran began in late February, and NBC News reported that unleaded is up 45% and diesel 70% since then.
Why the Fed's next move matters to car shoppers
The hotter report moved expectations for the Federal Reserve, which raised its benchmark rate in September for the first time since 2023, to a range of 3.75% to 4%, and signaled another increase this year. Its next meeting is Oct. 27-28. Stephen Brown, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, told CBS News that markets moved to roughly a 50% chance of a hike this month, up from about 20% before the data. Yahoo Finance reported that CME FedWatch put the odds at 35%, up from 22% a day earlier. Estimates varied by source and through the day, but they all moved the same way.
For drivers, that is a second hit on top of fuel. NBC News noted that a rate increase could raise the cost of vehicle loans along with credit cards and personal loans. Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, called the report "a disappointing number," NBC reported.
What to watch next
The October CPI is scheduled for Nov. 10 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Because pump prices held near $4.33 through the first half of October, the next report is unlikely to show another 9% gasoline jump, but it also will not show much relief unless prices fall in the second half of the month.
In the meantime, the practical moves are the familiar ones. Shoppers comparing a pickup or a large SUV with a hybrid can use the EPA estimates at fueleconomy.gov to price the difference at $4.33 a gallon, and anyone planning to finance a car this fall may want to get loan preapprovals now, so they can compare offers before and after the Fed's Oct. 28 decision.
